June 1st marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season & it appears as though there is no time being wasted in the Gulf of Mexico. At the moment, we already have an area in the southern Gulf of Mexico that now has a high chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next five days. In fact, this disturbance has a a 40% chance of development in the next two days and 70% within the next five days. As always, it is never too early to begin preparing for what will likely be another active hurricane season. We discuss some of the predictions for this year below.
An above normal 2022 hurricane season
As a reminder, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year. If this is the case, it will mark the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. At the moment, the NOAA hurricane outlook is predicting the following:
- 65% chance of an above-normal season
- 25% chance of a near-normal season
- 10% chance of a below-normal season
As for just how active of a hurricane season we can expect, NOAA is predicting the following:
- 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 6 to 10 of these storms becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher)
2022 Atlantic tropical cyclone names
| Alex | Hermine | Owen |
| Bonnie | Ian | Paula |
| Connie | Julia | Richard |
| Danielle | Karl | Shary |
| Earl | Lisa | Tobias |
| Fiona | Martin | Virginie |
| Gaston | Nicole | Walter |
Summary
It is important to note that the NOAA hurricane predictions are an overall activity estimate and not necessarily a landfall forecast. While it is the hope that any named storms turn out to sea and never impact any land mass, we must always be prepared for the worst in South Florida. If you have not done so already, now is the time to create your hurricane preparedness plan and obtain any needed supplies. As a reminder, you may currently take advantage of the 2022 Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday. For more information on this, you can click here.
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