Mortgage originations are showing signs of life. According to ATTOM’s latest Mortgage Origination Report for Q3 2025, total mortgage originations grew 1.9% year-over-year despite a slight 1.6% quarterly dip. For home buyers, sellers, and real estate investors watching the market, this modest annual increase signals that the housing finance sector may finally be turning a corner—even as elevated mortgage rates continue to challenge affordability.
Here’s what the numbers tell us and why year-over-year growth matters right now.
Mortgage Originations: 1.77 Million Mortgages, $600.4 Billion in Volume
In Q3 2025, lenders issued 1.77 million residential mortgages (1–4 family properties) with a total dollar volume of $600.4 billion.
- Quarterly change in number of loans: ↓ 1.6%
- Year-over-year change in number of loans: ↑ 1.9%
- Quarterly change in dollar volume: ↓ 3.1%
- Year-over-year change in dollar volume: ↑ 3.1%
That matching 3.1% annual increase in both count and volume is one of the clearest signs yet that the worst of the 2023–2024 mortgage slowdown may be behind us.
Mortgage Rates Are Still High—but Improving
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.26% during the period—still elevated compared to the sub-4% rates of the pandemic era, but noticeably lower than the 6.84% average seen in November 2024.
Most economists expect rates to drift lower through 2026, which could unlock more purchase activity and sustain the year-over-year growth trend we’re now seeing.
Where the Growth Is Coming From: Refis and HELOCs Lead the Way
While purchase loans remain under pressure, refinance and home-equity activity picked up:
| Loan Type | Quarterly Change | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase loans | ↓ 4.8% | ↓ 6.6% |
| Refinance loans | ↑ 0.2% | ↑ 12% |
| HELOCs | ↑ 2.8% | ↑ 4.6% |
“The modest lift in refinance and HELOC activity suggests some homeowners are taking advantage of small rate improvements and tapping equity, while purchase activity remains constrained by affordability,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM.
In short: homeowners who already own are starting to move, while first-time and move-up buyers are still largely on the sidelines.
Government-Backed Loans Took a Hit
One notable drag on the numbers came from government-backed programs (FHA, VA, USDA). A prolonged processing shutdown during Q3 led to delays and fewer originations in this segment, further suppressing purchase-loan volume.
What This Means for the Rest of 2025 and Into 2026
ATTOM summarizes the current state perfectly:
“The Q3 data points to a housing finance market that is stabilizing but still constrained by affordability and rate pressures.”
Translation: We’re not back to boom times, but the year-over-year gains in total originations, refinance volume, and HELOC activity show the market is no longer in free fall.
As interest rates continue their expected decline and home-price growth moderates in many regions, analysts anticipate both quarterly and annual origination numbers to keep trending higher heading into 2026.
Summary
As interest rates continue their expected decline and home-price growth moderates in many regions, analysts anticipate both quarterly and annual origination numbers to keep trending higher heading into 2026.
For prospective buyers waiting for the perfect moment, the data suggests improvement is already underway—just don’t expect 2021-style frenzy anytime soon. The market is stabilizing, and that stability could be the foundation for a healthier, more sustainable recovery in the year ahead.
Are you thinking of buying or selling real estate in the South Florida area? We can help! Contact Natasha at Live South Florida Realty, Inc. today! Also, don’t forget to download the free Florida Home Search App for your smartphone or tablet.
