The potential for a bustling spring real estate market hasn’t evaporated just yet. According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), pending home sales recorded another promising uptick in March.
However, while buyers are showing resilience, the future outlook remains on somewhat shaky ground as the ongoing Iranian conflict injects uncertainty into global markets and mortgage rates. Here is a breakdown of what the latest numbers mean for buyers, sellers, and the 2026 spring housing market.
March 2026 Housing Market Highlights
Despite a slight rise in mortgage rates throughout March, eager buyers continued to sign contracts. NAR’s Pending Home Sales report revealed the following:
- Month-over-Month Growth: Pending sales grew by 1.5% in March. This marks the second consecutive monthly increase in 2026, following a 1.8% jump in February.
- Year-over-Year Decline: Compared to the same time last year, pending sales were down slightly by 1.1% (a slightly wider gap than the 0.8% YoY drop seen last month).
- Pent-Up Demand: NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun emphasized that despite the upward drift in borrowing costs, the rise in contract signings is a clear indicator of strong, “pent-up housing demand.”
The Impact of Interest Rates and Geopolitics
The housing market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between strong buyer demand and geopolitical instability.
Realtor.com® Senior Economist Anthony Smith noted that mortgage rates climbed from 6.11% in mid-March to 6.38% by month’s end, largely driven by the ongoing conflict with Iran. However, there is a silver lining for prospective buyers.
Rates remained roughly half a percentage point below the same period last year, preserving much of the year-over-year buying power gains that have quietly been accumulating.” — Anthony Smith, Realtor.com®
Will Progress Be Cut Short?
Smith cautions that while the market is entering the spring season with meaningful advantages—such as improved inventory, declining median list prices, and lower year-over-year rates—the risk of buyer hesitation is real. Choppy rate movements in early April, pushing borrowing costs back above 6.3%, could trigger a repeat of last spring’s pattern, where early promise was stifled by sudden buyer pullback.
Regional Breakdown: A Mixed Bag
While national existing home sales remain near historic lows, real estate is hyper-local. Trends varied significantly across different regions in March.
| Region | Month-over-Month (MoM) | Year-over-Year (YoY) |
| Northeast | +4.4% | -6.5% |
| South | +3.9% | +2.3% |
| Midwest | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| West | -2.6% | -1.7% |
The Southern Advantage: The South is currently leading the pack in year-over-year growth. Lawrence Yun attributes this to a powerful combination of recent price cuts and the strongest job growth in the nation, predicting even stronger housing market activity in the region as the year progresses.
Top 10 Markets Seeing the Biggest Year-Over-Year Gains
Among the 50 largest metro areas in the United States, several cities are already experiencing their own localized spring surges. Here are the top 10 markets with the most notable year-over-year gains in housing transactions:
- Kansas City, MO-KS: +14.9%
- Milwaukee, WI: +13.5%
- Austin, TX: +12.8%
- Phoenix, AZ: +12.1%
- Raleigh, NC: +10.0%
- Portland, OR: +9.7%
- Richmond, VA: +8.5%
- Virginia Beach, VA: +8.5%
- Dallas, TX: +8.1%
- Washington, D.C.: +8.0%
Summary
Looking Ahead: What to Expect This Spring
So, could a spring homebuying surge still happen? The ingredients are certainly there. Pent-up demand is palpable, and as Lawrence Yun notes, “a greater supply of inventory will help translate that demand into more home sales.”
If inventory continues to improve and mortgage rates can find a baseline of stability despite international conflicts, the 2026 spring market may finally deliver the turnaround buyers and sellers have been waiting for.
Are you thinking about buying or selling a property in the South Florida area? We can help! Contact Natasha at Live South Florida Realty, Inc. today! Also, be sure to download the free Florida Home Search App for your smartphone or tablet.
