Quick answer: In July 2026, there were an estimated 51.3% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market — one of the widest gaps ever recorded, and just below December 2025’s all-time high of 51.8%. Nearly 80% of major U.S. metros are now buyer’s markets, led by Miami, Nashville, and several Texas cities, giving house hunters in those areas significant leverage on price and terms.
This shift is happening not because more homes are hitting the market, but because homebuyer demand has collapsed to a record low amid high mortgage rates and stretched affordability.
Key Takeaways
- Sellers outnumbered buyers by 51.3% nationally in July 2026, nearing December’s record of 51.8%.
- The number of active buyers fell to roughly 967,000 — a record low — while sellers numbered about 1.46 million.
- 39 of 49 major U.S. metros analyzed (nearly 80%) are now buyer’s markets.
- Miami is the strongest buyer’s market in the country, with 154% more sellers than buyers.
- Only six metros remain seller’s markets, led by Nassau County, NY.
- Buyer’s markets got even more buyer-friendly month over month, with 34 of 39 seeing bigger seller surpluses.
Why Are Sellers Outnumbering Buyers by Such a Wide Margin?
The imbalance comes down to one thing: buyers are exiting the market faster than sellers are. Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in a year during July, and that, combined with high home prices and broader economic uncertainty, has pushed many would-be buyers to the sidelines.
Meanwhile, the number of sellers actually declined slightly too — down about 0.3% from June — but nowhere near as fast as buyer demand dropped (down 2.5%). In other words, this isn’t a story of a flood of new listings. It’s a story of buyers quietly disappearing from the market while sellers hang on, creating a growing surplus.
Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan describes the current stretch — roughly now through Labor Day — as a potential “sweet spot” for people who need to move, since buyers hold unusual leverage while some sellers may be more willing to negotiate before fall brings a modest rebound in buyer activity.
How Redfin Defines a Buyer’s Market vs. a Seller’s Market
Redfin classifies local markets based on the gap between estimated buyers and sellers:
- Buyer’s market: Sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%
- Seller’s market: Buyers outnumber sellers by more than 10%
- Balanced market: The gap falls within plus or minus 10%
Buyer counts are estimated using proprietary data on the typical time between a buyer’s first home tour and closing, combined with MLS data on active listings and pending sales. Seller counts are simply the number of active MLS listings. Both figures are seasonally adjusted.
Which Housing Markets Favor Buyers Most?
Miami, Nashville, and several fast-growing Texas metros currently offer the most negotiating power to house hunters:
| Rank | Metro | Sellers vs. Buyers |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami, FL | +154% |
| 2 | Nashville, TN | +151% |
| 3 | Houston, TX | +130% |
| 4 | San Antonio, TX | +116% |
| 5 | Austin, TX | +112% |
Miami and Nashville stand out because pandemic-era construction and investor activity flooded those markets with supply just as local buyers are getting priced out — a squeeze made worse in Miami by rising insurance premiums, climbing HOA fees, and climate-related risk. Houston, San Antonio, and Austin, by contrast, are being reshaped by some of the most active homebuilding pipelines in the country, which keeps fresh inventory flowing even as buyer demand softens.
In Nashville, buyers are reportedly taking their time and negotiating good deals — a sharp contrast to the multiple-offer, days-on-market frenzy of a few years ago.
Where Do Sellers Still Have the Upper Hand?
Only six of the 49 major metros Redfin tracked remain seller’s markets:
| Rank | Metro | Buyers vs. Sellers |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassau County, NY | -36% |
| 2 | Newark, NJ | -21% |
| 3 | Providence, RI | -17% |
| 4 | Milwaukee, WI | -15% |
| 5 | New Brunswick, NJ | -13% |
| 6 | Montgomery County, PA | -13% |
These pockets of resilience share a common thread: constrained new-home construction and proximity to strong job centers, especially in the greater New York City area. Milwaukee is the outlier, staying competitive mainly because it remains more affordable than the national median. Notably, home prices in these six seller’s markets rose an average of 4.2% year over year in July, nearly double the 2.3% average increase across buyer’s markets — a sign that where demand still outpaces supply, competition is still pushing prices up.
Is the Buyer’s Market Getting Stronger or Weaker?
Stronger, in most places. The seller surplus grew from June to July in 34 of the 39 buyer’s markets nationwide. Miami saw the biggest jump (from 134% to 154%), followed by Seattle (46% to 65%) and Fort Worth (67% to 86%). Only five buyer’s markets — West Palm Beach, San Antonio, Pittsburgh, Virginia Beach, and Dallas — saw buyers lose a bit of ground month over month.
What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling
For buyers: In most of the country, you have room to negotiate — on price, closing costs, repairs, and contingencies. Sellers in heavily buyer-favored metros like Miami, Nashville, and the Texas Triangle are increasingly willing to make concessions rather than let a listing sit.
For sellers: Pricing realistically and being open to negotiation matters more than ever outside the handful of remaining seller’s markets. With inventory piling up and buyer demand at record lows, overpricing a listing risks a longer time on market.
For everyone: Rate movements matter enormously right now. Because affordability is the main force keeping buyers on the sidelines, any relief on mortgage rates could quickly pull demand back into the market and tighten these gaps.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean when sellers outnumber buyers by 51%? It means there were roughly 51% more people listing homes for sale than people actively shopping to buy one, as of July 2026. This surplus of sellers gives buyers more properties to choose from and more leverage to negotiate price and terms.
Is it a buyer’s market in 2026? Yes, nationally. Redfin classifies a market as buyer-favored when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%, and the national gap was over 51% in July 2026. Nearly 80% of major U.S. metros currently meet that threshold.
Why are there so few buyers right now? Homebuying demand hit a record low largely due to mortgage rates reaching their highest level in a year, combined with persistently high home prices and general economic uncertainty that’s kept many house hunters waiting on the sidelines.
Which cities have the strongest buyer’s markets? Miami, Nashville, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin currently have the largest surpluses of sellers over buyers, giving house hunters in those metros the most negotiating leverage.
Are any U.S. cities still seller’s markets? Yes — just six of the 49 major metros analyzed, led by Nassau County, NY, followed by Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; Milwaukee, WI; New Brunswick, NJ; and Montgomery County, PA.
Summary
The U.S. housing market has tilted further in buyers’ favor, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 51% nationally in July 2026 — and nowhere is that shift more pronounced than South Florida. Miami now ranks as the single strongest buyer’s market in the country, with a staggering 154% more sellers than buyers, driven by a wave of pandemic-era construction, rising insurance costs, climbing HOA fees, and growing climate risk that’s pushed local buyers to the sidelines. For house hunters, that means real leverage: more inventory to choose from and sellers who are increasingly willing to negotiate on price and terms. For sellers, it means pricing strategically and being prepared to work with buyers rather than against them in order to get a home sold. Whether you’re looking to buy your first home, upgrade, downsize, or list a property in today’s shifting South Florida market, having an experienced local expert in your corner makes all the difference. Contact Natasha at Live South Florida Realty, Inc. today to get a personalized read on your neighborhood’s market conditions and a strategy built around your goals — reach out now to start the conversation.
